Electoral Connection Application

Mayhew's Electoral Connection

In 1974, David R. Mayhew wrote a book titled Congress: The Electoral Connection. His main thesis was that every member of Congress desires one thing: to stay in office. While they may have other goals, reelection must be their "proximate" goal. In other words, the other goals (such as good public policy, political influence, serving constituents, seeking higher office, and legislating) are underlying because they are impossible if the member of Congress is no longer, well, in Congress. Mayhew goes on to outline three kinds of activities that members of Congress "find it electorally useful to engage in" (49). These activities are advertising, position taking, and credit claiming.

Advertising

Mayhew defines advertising in this context as "any effort to disseminate one's name among constituents in such a fashion as to create a favorable image but in messages having little or no issues content" (49). The idea behind advertising is to make yourself a household name. Examples include franking (using an unlimited budget to mail "information" to their constituencies) and drafting a newsletter.

Madeleine Dean has an emailed newsletter that anyone can subscribe to, even though it may take a couple of tries to convince the website that you're not a robot. The newsletter is an attempt to show her constituency what she has been up to, even if there is not much issue content in the newsletter itself. The point of having a newsletter is to show her constituents that she is just "one of them" and that she is in Congress to serve them. There is even a press release that talks about Madeleine hosting an open house at one of her district offices. By participating in a "get to know your member of Congress" article, Madeleine also exemplifies advertising. The article gets her name out into the world, makes her seem personable and relatable, and has little (albeit some) issue content.

Credit Claiming

According to Mayhew, credit claiming is "acting so as to generate a belief in a relevant political actor (or actors) that one is personally responsible for causing the government, or some unit thereof, to do something that the actor (or actors) considers desirable" (53). In doing so, members of Congress make themselves appear irreplaceable and necessary. Examples of credit claiming include sponsoring a piece of legislation, obtaining earmarks, and serving on a committee.

The only bill that Madeleine Dean has sponsored is H.R. 869, the Undetectable Firearms Modernization Act. By sponsoring this bill, she can take all of the credit if it passes, even though there is a large number of people that are integral to the process of passing legislation. Madeleine's current committee assignments are Financial Services and Judiciary. By being a member of these committees, Madeleine can claim credit for everything they accomplish, even if she is only a part of the process.

Position Taking

Mayhew defines position taking as "public enunciation of a judgmental statement on anything likely of interest to political actors" (61). Members of Congress partake in position taking to emphasize their likeness with their constituents. Examples of position taking include cosponsoring a bill and creating a press release that evaluates legislation.

Madeleine has cosponsored 37 bills. The majority of these bills involve gun safety, fair wages, and veteran support programs. By cosponsoring bills, she is showing her constituents that she is fighting for them and believes in the same things that they believe in. She wants her constituency to know that she cares about gun safety, fair wages, and veteran support programs.

Madeleine's press releases largely consist of opposing the government shutdown and advocating for clean drinking water. Madeleine is talking about what she believes in and values instead of working to pass legislation. That is not to say that position taking is not important, as it definitely has its place in the reelection process. Madeleine's press releases are simply communicating rather than doing.

Social Media: All Three Activities

Madeleine uses social media in a way that could be considered all three activities—advertising, credit claiming, and position taking.

Her Twitter account (@RepDean) includes a retweet about Oscar winners, a tweet declaring her role in terminating the national emergency, and a tweet advocating for background checks for gun owners. The retweet about the Oscars shows her homestyle and puts her relatable name into the public's mind, making it a good example of advertising. The tweet about the national emergency is clearly credit claiming, as she was not the only person who played a role in this event. The tweet about background checks is considered position taking because she is merely stating her opinion on the issue.

Madeleine's Instagram account (@repmadeleinedean) is similar to her Twitter account. She has posted a picture of herself doing service in her county (advertising), a video about her sponsored gun control bill and her part in the process (credit claiming), and a video about freeing South Sudan prisoners (position taking).

Madeleine's Facebook page (@RepMadeleineDean) also contains all three of Mayhew's activities. She has shared an article about an African-American Speaker of the Pennsylvania House for Black History Month (advertising), posted about one of her committees that is holding a hearing about Trump's border practices (credit claiming), and shared a video about how the administration must follow the rule of law (position taking).

Electoral Circumstances

Last Election

Madeleine Dean was inspired to run for Congress by the lack of women holding Congressional seats in Pennsylvania. According to Ballotpedia, she received 63.5% of the votes in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 4 on November 6, 2018, defeating Republican Dan David. In the Democratic primary election on May 15, 2018, Madeleine defeated Shira Goodman and Joe Hoeffel with 72.6% of the votes. Madeleine's platforms included stopping gun violence and providing health care to everyone. She was endorsed by former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Current Prediction: Outlook for the Primary & General Elections

While Madeleine's actions in the next year and a half will impact her chances in the 2020 primary election, there is definitely an advantage for incumbents. By examining FiveThirtyEight's reasoning behind why Madeleine Dean was predicted to beat Dan David in the 2018 general election, it seems as though she has a good chance of winning again in 2020. Pennsylvania is a Democratic-leaning state and the recent redistricting has helped Democratic candidates increase their chances of winning. In addition, Madeleine raised over twice as much campaign financing as Dan David. FairVote believes that Madeleine's seat is safe in 2020, estimating that she will win with 59.7% of the votes. Neither the Cook Political Report nor 270 to Win believe that her seat will be contested.

Constituencies

In terms of Fenno's four types of constituencies, Madeleine should focus the most on her re-election and geographic groups. She will get the votes from her personal group, and if she can get enough people to vote for her in the primary election, they should also vote for her in the general election. If she can get the people that voted for her in 2018 to show up in 2020, she will have a good chance of winning. With the redistricting, constituents will be confused about what their new district will and should look like. A strong campaign from Madeleine will be necessary to sway them in her direction.

2016 Vote

According to Ballotpedia, "Pennsylvania was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election." Donald Trump won the Pennsylvania general election in 2016. Barrack Obama won in 2012 and 2008. In fact, until 2016, Pennsylvania had consistently voted for a Democratic president since 2000. In 2016, Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District (the closest geographically to the new 4th District) gave Trump 32% of the vote and Clinton 65%. In the 2012 election, Romney received 33% of the vote and Obama received 66%. These statistics show that even though Pennsylvania voted more conservatively in 2016, Madeleine's district remains liberal.

Campaign Finance Status

In 2017 and 2018, Madeleine raised $1,348,307. Of the amount raised, about 7% ($100,684) was from small individual contributions of less than $200 each; 40% ($539,011) was from large individual contributions; 36% ($487,950) was from PAC contributions; 15% ($195,929) was from candidate self-financing; and 2% ($24,734) was from "other." The average amount raised by House campaigns in 2017 and 2018 was $2.16 million. The top three PAC sectors that contributed to Madeleine's campaign were ideological/single-issue, labor, and health. The top three industries that contributed were lawyers/law firms, leadership PACs, and building trade unions. It is likely that Madeleine's portfolio will be similar in her campaign for reelection.

Major Issues

Madeleine's number one goal (other than perhaps re-election, depending on your school of thought) is to pass stricter gun control legislation. She is also passionate about health care (including abortion access and opioid addiction solutions), higher quality education, and a "fair and compassionate immigration policy that preserves America's values." The majority of the bills that Madeleine has cosponsored while in office have involved gun safety, fair wages, and veteran support programs.

Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District

Population, Major Cities

Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District is located in the southeast corner of the state. The district includes parts of Berks and Montgomery counties and has a population of 710,198, according to Ballotpedia. The district's major cities are Pottstown, Norristown, and Jenkintown.

Demographics

A word of caution: due to the recent redistricting in Pennsylvania, there is not a lot of information about the demographics of the new 4th Congressional District. The only website claiming to have the correct statistics is Ballotpedia, but it is possible that these statistics are actually about Pennsylvania's old 13th Congressional District, as their source is 2010 data from the U.S. Census Bureau while the redistricting occurred in 2018.

• Gender: 49.4% Male, 50.6% Female
• Race: 84.92% White, 7.95% Black
• Ethnicity: 6.1% Hispanic
• Unemployment: 9.3%
• Median household income: $54,291
• High school graduation rate: 89.1%
• College graduation rate: 24.5%

Major Industries & Companies

The key industries in Pennsylvania, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Community & Economic Development, are natural gas, manufacturing, agribusiness, tourism, life sciences, and plastics. Pennsylvania has consistently been the second-largest national gas producer (Texas being number one). Their manufacturers are quick to boast about their steel contribution to the Golden Gate Bridge, Empire State Building, and the Hoover Dam. They have the most food-processing companies and are home to the largest hardwood forest in the United States—and they grow over 10% of America's Christmas trees! Over $41 billion is injected into Pennsylvania annually by tourists. The first American hospital was established in Philadelphia and their legacy in the life sciences lives on. Natural gas production is crucial in the plastics industry; therefore, it is a given that a state with such a large emphasis on natural gas would also excel in the plastics industry.

Pennsylvania's Department of Labor & Industry Center for Workforce Information & Analysis ranks the largest employers and industries based on number of employees. The top five industries in Montgomery County are restaurants, schools, management, hospitals, and employment services. The top five industries in Pennsylvania are restaurants, schools, hospitals, family services, and universities. The top five employers in Montgomery County are Merck Sharp & Dohme Corporation, Abington Memorial Hospital, the State Government, Main Line Hospitals, Inc., and Giant Food Stores, LLC. The top five employers in Pennsylvania are Wal-Mart Associates, Inc., the Trustees of the University of PA, the City of Philadelphia, the US Postal Service, and Giant Food Stores, LLC.

Party affiliation

The 2018 Cook Partisan Voter Index for Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District was D+7, which, according to Ballotpedia, means that "in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Democratic than the national average." The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District (the closest geographically to the new 4th District) was D+15, with Trump receiving 32% of the vote and Clinton receiving 65%. In the 2012 election, Romney received 33% of the vote and Obama received 66%.

FiveThirtyEight gave Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District an elasticity score of 0.98 for 2018. According to Ballotpedia, this means that "for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.98 points toward that party." Pennsylvania received an elasticity score of 1.00.

Gerrymandering

In February 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court announced a new congressional district map. The Inquirer explained that with the enactment of the new map, "districts more closely align with county lines, and only 13 counties are split among two or three districts. By contrast, under the last map, enacted by the legislature in 2011, more than twice as many counties were split among multiple districts." There is no question that the new district map favors Democrats, which may cause Republicans to challenge the map in the near future.

Meet Madeleine Dean

Quick Facts

• Born: June 6, 1959 (currently 59 years old)
• Family: Husband (Patrick "PJ" Cunnane), 3 sons (Patrick, Harry, Alex), 2 daughters-in-law (Stephanie, Juliet), 1 granddaughter (Aubrey, 7 years old)
• Residence: Jenkintown, Abington Township, Pennsylvania
• Education: La Salle University (B.A.), Widener University (J.D.), the University of Pennsylvania (current)
• Political Party: Democratic
• Religion: Roman Catholic
• Office: Representative (Pennsylvania's 4th District) since 2019

Via U.S. House of Representatives

Education and Career

According to the U.S. House of Representatives, Madeleine earned her B.A. at La Salle University in Philadelphia, majoring in English Literature and Language. She went on to earn her law degree at the Delaware Law School of Widener University. She then practiced law at a small firm in Philadelphia before opening her own small practice. From 2001 to 2011, she was an English professor at La Salle University. After beginning her studies of politics and public service at University of Pennsylvania's Fels School of Government in 2011, Madeleine served as Abington Township commissioner. In 2012, she entered the Pennsylvania State House. In 2015, Madeleine was appointed to the Pennsylvania Commission for Women. In 2018, she won the Fourth Congressional District seat for Pennsylvania.

Previous Elected Experience

Madeleine was a member of the Pennsylvania State House of Representatives for four consecutive terms (2012-2018), representing the District 153. While in office, she focused on public education, the environment, equal gender rights, access to health care, and gun violence. The Sandy Hook shooting in 2012 influenced Madeleine to co-found PA SAFE, a gun violence prevention caucus, with Representative Dan Frankel.

Fun Facts

• Nickname: "Mad"
• Favorite pump-up song: "Happy" by Pharrell Williams
• Favorite thing to teach: Writing
• Favorite food from her district: Glenside Pub (Glenside, PA)
• The U.S. House of Representatives notes that while teaching at La Salle, Madeleine also contributed to The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Daily News, The Patriot-News, and other publications.

Committee Assignments

Madeleine's current committee assignments are Financial Services and Judiciary. However, the committees that have been involved in the bills she has sponsored or cosponsored include Judiciary, Education and Labor, Energy and Commerce, Oversight and Reform, and Ways and Means. Madeleine's committee assignments while in the Pennsylvania House include Appropriations (2013-2018), Finance (2013-2018), Judiciary (2013-2018), State Government (2017-2018), Urban Affairs (2017-2018), Ethics (2013-2016), Gaming Oversight (2015-2016), Local Government (2015-2016), and Human Services (2013-2014).

Sponsored Legislation

Having not been in Congress very long, Madeleine Dean has not had the opportunity to sponsor many bills. The only bill that she has sponsored is H.R. 869, the Undetectable Firearms Modernization Act. Madeleine has, however, cosponsored 37 bills. The majority of these bills involve gun safety, fair wages, and veteran support programs. In my opinion, the most important bill that Madeleine cosponsors is H.R. 737, the Shark Fin Sales Elimination Act of 2019. All of these bills are in the introductory phase, other than H.R. 1, the For the People Act of 2019, which is in the committee hearings phase.

ADA and Interest Group Scores

Although Madeleine has not yet received an ADA rating, Vote Smart assigns percentages to members of Congress that "can be invaluable in showing where an incumbent has stood on a series of votes in the past one or two years, especially when ratings by groups on all sides of an issue are compared." Madeleine is at 100% for abortion, animals and wildlife, the environment, health and health care, and sexual orientation and gender identity. She is consistently below 25% for business and consumers, the NRA, and socially and fiscally conservative measures.

Crossing Party Lines

Out of the 37 bills that Madeleine has cosponsored, only two have been sponsored by a Republican: H.R. 555 and H.R. 1225. H.R. 555, the Disability Integration Act of 2019, is sponsored by Rep. Sensenbrenner. Although sponsored by a Republican, 81 of the 90 cosponsors for this bill are Democrats. Therefore, it seems as though this bill would be crossing party lines for Rep. Sensenbrenner more than for Madeleine Dean. H.R. 1225 (To establish, fund, and provide for the use of amounts in a National Park Service and Public Lands Legacy Restoration Fund to address the maintenance backlog of the National Park Service, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, and Bureau of Indian Education, and for other purposes) is sponsored by Rep. Bishop and needs a shorter title. H.R. 1225 is far more bipartisan than H.R. 555, with 52 Democrats and 40 Republicans as cosponsors.

Positions of Leadership

As early as age 18, Madeleine Dean began her leadership journey by winning an election to serve as a local committee-person. Before opening her own law firm, she rose to the position of Executive Director at her previous firm. She was the Abingtown Town commissioner until she won a special election to the Pennsylvania State House. In 2015, she was appointed by Governor Tom Wolf to the Pennsylvania Commission for Women. She also served as a board member for the St. Vincent de Paul Society.