Electoral Circumstances

Last Election

Madeleine Dean was inspired to run for Congress by the lack of women holding Congressional seats in Pennsylvania. According to Ballotpedia, she received 63.5% of the votes in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 4 on November 6, 2018, defeating Republican Dan David. In the Democratic primary election on May 15, 2018, Madeleine defeated Shira Goodman and Joe Hoeffel with 72.6% of the votes. Madeleine's platforms included stopping gun violence and providing health care to everyone. She was endorsed by former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Current Prediction: Outlook for the Primary & General Elections

While Madeleine's actions in the next year and a half will impact her chances in the 2020 primary election, there is definitely an advantage for incumbents. By examining FiveThirtyEight's reasoning behind why Madeleine Dean was predicted to beat Dan David in the 2018 general election, it seems as though she has a good chance of winning again in 2020. Pennsylvania is a Democratic-leaning state and the recent redistricting has helped Democratic candidates increase their chances of winning. In addition, Madeleine raised over twice as much campaign financing as Dan David. FairVote believes that Madeleine's seat is safe in 2020, estimating that she will win with 59.7% of the votes. Neither the Cook Political Report nor 270 to Win believe that her seat will be contested.

Constituencies

In terms of Fenno's four types of constituencies, Madeleine should focus the most on her re-election and geographic groups. She will get the votes from her personal group, and if she can get enough people to vote for her in the primary election, they should also vote for her in the general election. If she can get the people that voted for her in 2018 to show up in 2020, she will have a good chance of winning. With the redistricting, constituents will be confused about what their new district will and should look like. A strong campaign from Madeleine will be necessary to sway them in her direction.

2016 Vote

According to Ballotpedia, "Pennsylvania was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election." Donald Trump won the Pennsylvania general election in 2016. Barrack Obama won in 2012 and 2008. In fact, until 2016, Pennsylvania had consistently voted for a Democratic president since 2000. In 2016, Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District (the closest geographically to the new 4th District) gave Trump 32% of the vote and Clinton 65%. In the 2012 election, Romney received 33% of the vote and Obama received 66%. These statistics show that even though Pennsylvania voted more conservatively in 2016, Madeleine's district remains liberal.

Campaign Finance Status

In 2017 and 2018, Madeleine raised $1,348,307. Of the amount raised, about 7% ($100,684) was from small individual contributions of less than $200 each; 40% ($539,011) was from large individual contributions; 36% ($487,950) was from PAC contributions; 15% ($195,929) was from candidate self-financing; and 2% ($24,734) was from "other." The average amount raised by House campaigns in 2017 and 2018 was $2.16 million. The top three PAC sectors that contributed to Madeleine's campaign were ideological/single-issue, labor, and health. The top three industries that contributed were lawyers/law firms, leadership PACs, and building trade unions. It is likely that Madeleine's portfolio will be similar in her campaign for reelection.

Major Issues

Madeleine's number one goal (other than perhaps re-election, depending on your school of thought) is to pass stricter gun control legislation. She is also passionate about health care (including abortion access and opioid addiction solutions), higher quality education, and a "fair and compassionate immigration policy that preserves America's values." The majority of the bills that Madeleine has cosponsored while in office have involved gun safety, fair wages, and veteran support programs.